Modelling

We are building new models based on the highly successful Integrated Catchment Models (INCA) developed by Prof Whitehead over the past 20 years. These models are process based and dynamic so can cope with changing environmental systems and predict future behaviours in rivers, lakes and soils. Different versions of INCA are available for hydrology and river flows, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), carbon, metals, sediments, organics, plastics, pathogens, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The models have been applied to over 70 catchments worldwide from small 4ha catchments in the UK up to massive catchments such as the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Mekong.

The models can be utilized to evaluate issues such as pollution control, effluent planning, land management and climate change. Professional training courses have been run for researchers and managers in Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, the UK and across Europe.  A new model of toxicity would enable the rapid assessment of pollution in catchments, especially those threatened with toxic discharges from industry, domestic effluents or storm water runoff.

INCA provides the following outputs:

  • daily time series of flows, water quality concentrations at selected sites along the river;

  • profiles of flow or water quality along the river at selected times;

  • cumulative frequency distributions of flow and water quality at selected sites;

  • tables of statistics for all sites;

  • daily and annual pollution loads for all land uses and all processes.

An Example of INCA-P applied to the Black River, A Lake Sub-Catchment

As an illustration of INCA, the model has been applied in an initial study to the Black River that drains into a lake system. The model has been set up initially as a single reach and is driven by the rainfall and temperature data for the years 2005-2007.

A scenario simulation was run, assuming the fertiliser addition is reduced by 50% in the Black River catchment. This is only an illustrative simulation but, as the figure below shows, the simulated P (green line) is significantly lower that the simulated current P concentrations. Thus using INCA it is possible to assess potential change and environmental improvements and moreover provide change flux estimates for the meres.

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The wealth of information provided by our biosensors, combined with physical and chemical measurements, provides an enormously valuable set of data. We are working on creating new mathematical models to add value to our biosensor data, enabling us to provide more detail and information on the causes of toxicity than ever before. In addition, we are developing a new model for toxicity along river systems, based on hydrological modelling to examine the effects on river toxicity of land-use change, climate change, factory location and pollution loading.

The software is available as a windows package - please contact us for further information and demonstrations